“Burmese People's Protests Against Fuel Prices Hike Amid Ruffians' Attacks ”

31 August, 2007: New Era Journal The financial assistance to subsidize fuel prices may need not more than $300 million while the regime has already earned $2600 from natural gas export to Thailand in 2006-2007. Zin Linn The Burmese Military authorities continue to commit institutionalised human rights abuses through the use of gang of ruffians or the Swan-ar Shin. The people of Burma (Myanmar) have been publicly protesting against the arbitrary and dramatic increase of fuel prices since 21 August 2007. The protests that started in Rangoon (Yangon) have been spreading to other parts of Burma despite a brutal crackdown by the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). The junta has arrested hundreds of peaceful protesters including 88 generation student leaders and active members from the National League for Democracy (NLD). The military authorities and their gang of blood-thirsty Swan-ar Shin have been violently cracking down on unarmed civilian protesters, who have been peacefully protesting against their desperate economic situation. More and more families are facing starvation because the price of rice has doubled, there are no public transportation services to take people to work, and worse proceedings may follow. If the SPDC continues its ferocious crackdown in reaction to the growing protests, it will drag the country into an anarchic state. The crackdown is more likely practicing state-sponsored terrorism. Supporters of democracy around the world including the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour condemn the violent crackdown on pro-democracy activists by the Burmese military junta and call for their immediate and unconditional release. State media of Burma (Myanmar) including the Myanmar Times Journal said last week that an increase in fuel prices in Myanmar on August 15 was corresponding to a global trend among governments of withdrawing fuel subsidies to deal with the rising cost of oil. The price of petrol in military ruled country went from K1500 to K2500 a gallon, while diesel rose from K1500 to K3000. The biggest jump occurred with compressed natural gas (CNG), which changed from K10 to K50 a liter. The officials from the Yangon (Rangoon) Division Transport Supervisory Committee said that bus fares increases in the city since 15 August was in reaction to a massive rise in fuel prices. As a result of the increases, bus fares that were previously K40 have gone up to K100, K60 fares have raised to K150, and K80 fares to K200, said the official. But, according to local passengers, K100 for just a stop to the next and from suburb area to downtown costs K400 for one way. So, it will cost K800 for a round-trip while a daily wage-earner can make K1000 in average. An excuse to raise the fuel prices, the junta explained through its media that oil prices have reached as high as US$78.8 a barrel and several countries have taken action to the high prices by cutting subsidies to fuel-consuming sectors. The global oil market has been at an angle, as demand for fuel grows in developing countries whose governments use subsidies to keep oil prices at well below the free-market price. As a result, growing oil demand in China, India and the Middle East has driven the free-market oil price ever higher for developed countries. Egypt withdrew its oil subsidies for the electricity sector on August 14, one day before Burma/Myanmar raised its fuel prices. Egypt’s Trade and Industry Minister, Rachid Mohamed Rachid, said the reduction in subsidies would save the government £15 billion in the next three years. The editor-in-chief of Yangon-based International Economic Journal, Khin Maung Nyo (Economy) said he thought last week’s rise in fuel prices in Myanmar had resulted from a reduction in oil subsidies by the government. “The governments of many countries are having trouble offering fuel subsidies as oil prices go up. We already saw petrol prices in Myanmar go from K180 to K1500 a gallon after the government reduced subsidies in 2005,” he said. The junta’s Information Minister himself and the state media also highlighted that even though CNG now costs K190 ($0.15) a gallon in Myanmar/Burma, the price is still lower than the countries where subsidies are still government policy. For example, CNG is about $3.04 a gallon in Thailand and $3.86 in Singapore, says the Myanmar Times Journal. The junta’s Information Minister failed to mention the minimum wage in Thailand is currently 191 baht ($ 5.62) per day in Bangkok and slightly less in the provinces. The Minister Kyaw San also did not talk about the minimum wage in Burma which is currently 1000 kyat or less than 35 baht ($1) per day in Rangoon and Naypyidaw. The monthly salary of a university professor in Burma is only K170, 000 ($ 130 or 4,485 baht) and it means $ 4.01 (138 baht) for a day. Currently, 2 kilos of middle grade rice is around K1200 ($ 1 or 35 baht). The real question is that there are no enough jobs providing payments in line with neighbouring countries for the Burmese people within the country. The unemployment problem of Burma is now spilling over the region. Out of 55 million population of Burma more than 5 million is working not only in the neighbouring countries but also through out the world. The military regime always refuses listening to its general public who are only asking fair prices for fuel and commodity goods. The stubbornness of the generals pulled the country down to an abyss of starvation. The people have no other way out than a protest. The protests are the legitimate expression of dissatisfaction over the widely suffered effects of the regime’s economic mismanagement and bad governance. These peaceful protests, triggered by the junta's precipitous increases in fuel prices, are the logical consequences of many years of political repression and irresponsible administration. Burma's economy has remained moribund in 2006-2007, as inflation is going up as much as 50 percent. According to the UN reports, 75 percent of the people live under the poverty line and 25 percent of household are below minimum subsistence level, half of rural families are landless, 2.2 percent of adults are suffering HIV positive and around 50,000 die yearly. Moreover, one-third of the children are undernourished and one-tenth of them die before five years of age. According to the UN Development Programme's 2006 Human Development Report, public health expenditure equaled only 0.3% of Burma's GDP. High infant mortality rates and short life expectancies further highlight poor health and living conditions. The HIV/AIDS epidemic poses a serious threat to the Burmese population, as do tuberculosis and malaria. In 2006, the UNDP's Human Development Index, which measures achievements in terms of life expectancy, educational attainment, and adjusted real income, ranked Burma 130 out of 177 countries. Due to the economic downturn caused by the military's mismanagement, there is an estimated 2 to 3 million Burmese living in Thailand. There are numerous documented human rights violations, and internal displacement of ethnic minorities is still rampant. Over a million Burmese, many of them ethnic minorities have fled for economic and political raison d'être to Bangladesh, India, China, Malaysia, and Thailand to seek work and asylum. More than 150,000 Burmese live in nine refugee camps along the Thai-Burma border and roughly 30,000 live in two camps in Bangladesh. Roughly 30,000 Burmese, most of them are from Arakan and Chin States, have fled to Malaysia. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), referring Asian Development Bank (ADB), the total public sector deficit reached around six percent of the GDP for 2004-2005. Heavy losses by the country's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) typically account for over 60 percent of the overall deficit. The junta's fiscal position is also weighed down by high off-budget spending on its huge armed forces. Such corollary has resulted due to the junta's draconian policies that led to economic and social downturn proved by sky rocketing commodity-prices and rates of hyperinflation. The current raising-price in fuel sector is the junta’s dishonest policy which tends putting the overall deficit on the shoulder of the people. If the military leaders have benevolence towards the people, they should not have been done such policy. Instead, they should subsidize fuel prices for the domestic consumption to help poor majority population. The financial assistance to subsidize fuel prices may need not more than $300 million while the regime has already earned $2600 milloin from natural gas export to Thailand in 2006-2007. It is obvious that the latest precariousness in Burma is part of a long stream of problems inflicted on the people by the foolish military regime. By systematically violating the civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights of the people and blocking genuine reforms, the junta has established itself as the main threat to national and regional stability. Political and economic oppression of the people does not go with a roadmap to democracy. The people of Burma are hoping for a new dawn in order to enjoy basic freedom, and it is the role of the international community, especially regional players Japan and ASEAN members, to play for changes in Burma. Another two important players or the UN Security Council members, China and Russia, should also think over their vetoes on Burma issue in sympathy with the poor Burmese population who has been facing heavy taxes, starvation, diseases, arbitrary arrests and extrajudicial killings.

Burma may not get out of Constitutional Quagmire, Regardless of Self-determination

New Era Journal
14 August, 2007; Tuesday

- by – Zin Linn

Burma is bogging down in a constitutional quagmire rooted in the question of equality for all nationalities or democratic rights for all citizen of the nation. The ethnic nationalities in Burma have a strong political aspiration to establish a genuine federal union as highlighted in the 1947 Panglong Agreement. But, that burning aspiration was disregarded by the successive Burmese military regimes. As a result, the civil war has been going on because of the failed promise guaranteed in the Panglong Agreement. Contrary to the Panglong Contract, Burma’s 1947 Constitution which was completed in September failed to meet equal rights of ethnic nationalities had lasted for only fourteen years. Similarly, the 1974 Constitution, which also failed to meet establishing a Federal Union based on the principle of self-determination, had also lasted for merely fourteen years.

Now, as a consequence of the failed 1947 and 1974 constitutions, Burma has been still struggling in the constitutional quagmire. Burma's military junta has continued holding the last session of its controversial national convention on 18 July this year. While the final session of 14-year-old junta's National Convention is underway, the two strongest ethnic ceasefire groups - the KIO and United Wa State Army (UWSA) are threatened militarily and economically by the ruling junta. Recently KIO officials told Kachin News Group (KNG) that they have no reason to surrender weapons if the junta keeps denying autonomy for Kachin State which it has repeatedly demanded of successive ruling juntas. Relations between KIO and UWSA are strong and they seem to be alert their military units in order to resist inevitable military threats by the ruling junta, added news sources.

At the same time, New Mon State Party has cautiously sending an observation team to the final session of the controversial National Convention, according to Kaowao News Group. Meanwhile, the Mon civilians from both inside and outside the country are concerned about pressure by the military regime during or after the National Convention. The Mon population has grown disenchanted with the so-called ‘Road Map’ and its purpose to disarm the cease-fire groups without standard appreciation. Although the junta is pressuring the ceasefire groups, the NMSP stands decisively to uphold its four principles; not to dissolve the NMSP, not to disband its military wing, Mon National Liberation Army (MNLA), not to separate the party from its army, and not to give up the 14 territorial positions that were agreed during the cease-fire deal in 1995.

Under the menace of the military junta (SPDC), brushing aside the majority of people’s representatives-elect and allowing pro-military hand-picked delegates, how could it be a free and autonomous convention to make any social-contract. While contentious national convention is underway, the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Association, together with members of the local authorities and police, brazenly assaulted on human rights defenders in Burma.

Hence, this current convention may not represent a democratic mechanism as the military regime put aside the question of equality for all nationalities or democratic rights for all citizen of the nation. The junta’s pledges of democratic and economic reforms are merely rhetorical propagandas. Moreover, respect for the rule of law and human rights continue to be empty speechifying. It is, in fact, a magic show appeasing the ASEAN and China that the Burmese junta is working to perform a mufti-clad regime.

Accordingly, United Nations Secretary General Mr. Ban Ki-moon issued a statement on 18 July 2007, in which he urged the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) of Myanmar/Burma to seize the current opportunity to ensure that this and subsequent steps in Myanmar's political roadmap are as inclusive, participatory and transparent as possible, with a view to allowing all the relevant parties to Myanmar's national reconciliation process to fully contribute to defining their country's future.

Meanwhile, more than 50 British MPs have strongly called for the release of detained Burmese Parliamentarians who have been imprisoned under the military dictatorship. The British Parliamentarians are demanding that the UN Special Envoy to Burma and the British government step up efforts to release those parliamentarians, and all political prisoners in Burma.

In the mean time, on 1^st August 2007, 92 Elected Members of Parliament in 1990 Elections submitted a letter to Mr. Ban Ki-moon. In the letter, they expressed that they all are relentlessly working for political dialogue. And declaring, they will not accept any solution made by unilateral action of the SPDC with use of force, threat, pressure and manipulation. The group of 92-Mps also mentioned, the SPDC has been embarking on the path to legalize its military rule with a new constitution through the seven-step road map, in which the national convention with its selected delegates is the first step.

The peoples' representatives are not allowed to participate in this constitution drafting process. All delegates are forced to agree on the SPDC's readymade chapters and basic principles, which grant the military's Commander-in-Chief the supreme power. General populations are threatened not to raise their voice about the future of their country with the SPDC's decree No. 5/96, which is designed to punish lengthy imprisonment to those who dare to criticize the national convention.

Looking back into times of yore, it's easy to perceive the real culprit holding up national reconciliation and democratization in Burma. The people of Burma still have vivid memories of the August massacre in 1988. It took place 19 years ago, on 8th August of 1988, the people of Burma from all walks of life including soldiers and police force marched through the streets of the country demanding for political and economic changes and an end to the one-party or totalitarian rule.

The military opened fire on the protesters and it is estimated that in the five days from August 8 to 12, more than 3,000 demonstrators were cold-bloodedly shot down throughout the country by the armed forces. But the brutal shootings of the heavily armed troops could not do away with the protest. The people continued to carry on the street demonstrations with their demands for restoration of democracy and human rights in the nation. When the then totalitarian socialist government could not afford to halt the swelling people’s protests, the military dictators re-entered into the power game on 18th September 1988 with the bloody coup.

The 8^th August Uprising was a nation-wide people's movement, which broke out on an unprecedented scale in the history of Burma. Three totalitarian presidents had to step down from power due to massive pressure of the people's demonstrations all over the country. Nonetheless, the 8888 people’s protests paved way for the 1990 elections; these were however invalidated by the military. The National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi and its ethnic allies won over 90 % of parliamentary seats in a 1990 general election.

Actually, the result of 1990 elections clearly showed the genuine desire of the people from all walks of life. But, the crooked junta has played a trickery game of national convention to buy the time. The junta first promised in its 1/90 declaration that the task of the convention was to draft a constitution and all of the elected representatives must be participated in the process. But, when the 11/92 Declaration of the junta came out, it allowed only 99 Members of Parliament out of 485 or 15.24 percent of elected representatives only. In the current session, there are merely 12 representatives-elect and they are all pro-junta delegates.

Although the military regime is yelling towards disciplinary democracy, it has debarred nearly 200 Members of Parliament who disagreed with the No.6 objective – for the Tatmadaw (Army) to be able to participate in the national political leadership role of the state.) – laid down by the junta and 13 representatives-elect are continue languishing in various prisons together with 1200 political prisoners.

Although democracy and human rights are yet to restore in Burma, the democracy activists both inside and outside the country continue to be unwavering in their commitment to carry out the struggle for restoration of democracy in Burma. Governments, international institutions and the United Nations General Assembly have condemned the military junta for human rights abuses in the country and for not transferring power to the elected Members of Parliament.

On this historic occasion of the 19th Anniversary of "8^th August Uprising", the 92 members of parliament in 1990 elections submitted a proposal to the UNSG that the United Nations’ good offices might play important role to avoid the upcoming national crisis in Myanmar/Burma.

Especially, to modify the step two of the road map as a meaningful political dialogue between the SPDC and the elected representatives from the NLD and ethnic political parties. In the dialogue, various national issues and procedures and time frame to implement the rest of the road map, as well as the role of elected representatives from the 1990 elections during the transitional period should be discussed and agreed.

If the SPDC continues to put into practice its seven-step road map without cooperating with the representatives-elect and without listening to the real aspiration of the people and repeated requests from the international community, including the UN, the SPDC's orchestrated constitution would be definitely challenged by the people (including ethnic nationalities) of Myanmar (Burma). The group of 88 generation students, the group of 92-MPs and numerous dissident groups inside and outside the country are declaring to join with those challenging citizens who oppose this sham-constitution and taking part to educate and organize the people to vote against the military-monopolized constitution in the referendum.

It has been undisputable that Burma’s constitutional crisis becomes one serious case on the global stage. For instance, Ibrahim Gambari’s important global diplomatic tour is noticeable to the Burma-watchers. He started a four-nation (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia) trip on 6 August 2007 consulting on the topic of Burma, before a final leg to military-ruled country, according to a UN statement. Gambari was appointed as the UN secretary-general's special adviser on Burma in late May. In last July, he had made a diplomatic-tour to China, India, Japan, Russia and some European countries to seek advice bringing about “national reconciliation, the restoration of democracy and the protection of human rights” in Burma.

However, Burmese and non-Burmese people are worrying that whether Mr. Gambari himself understands the root of the question or not. According to some critics, Gambari should not hope a good result from the junta’s orchestrated constitution drafting assembly or the sham national convention. According to people’s vigilance, the convention is just for a show to International Community in the absence of the representatives-elect in the 1990 elections. The convention on the draft constitution has taken an appearance of being a democratic option, but it is being carried out under an indisputably undemocratic and unfair political environment.

The key factor for Burma’s key players is to concentrate upon the question of equality for all nationalities and fundamental rights for all citizen of the nation. The sixty-year-long civil war that stem out from a constitutional crisis of the country may not be ceased simply, if this current national convention fails to provide self-determination for every nationality.

http://www.khitpyaing.org/english_page/august07/14-8-07_zinlin.php
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A LIGHT OF HOPE FOR PEOPLE OF BURMA

New Era Journal:15 June, 2006.

[In commemoration of the 60th Birthday of the people's charismatic leader ]
by - Zin Linn

People of Burma mark 19 June, the birthday of Nobel Peace Laureate and Burma's Democracy Icon Aung San Suu Kyi, as Women of Burma Day. On this June 19, 2005 is the Sixtieth Birthday of Burma's democratic leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. As Suu is the true blood of her father, Burma's National Hero General Aung San, she inherited the Union Spirit and the Traditional obligation for National Reconciliation Cause. Moreover, she earnestly shoulders the task of building a democratic Burma. She also gives up self-interests in order to fulfill the will of all ethnicities in Burma. That's why people recognize Suu as the Bearer of New Hope for Burma.

People from various countries who support democracy and human rights admire Suu as champion of non-violence school together with Martin Luther Kings Jr. (1964 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate) and Nelson Mandela (1993 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate).

People agree that Suu has lots of personality. She's a lady of the highest integrity. She has shown great perseverance in the face of extreme hardship. She has a concentrated mind at her targeted destination. She never allows space for depression and approaches the questions with optimism. She always keeps calm and avoids disappointment while facing harsh oppression.

One remarkable personality is that Suu used to welcome every challenge as an opportunity. To everybody's knowledge, she holds firm to her resolution and never fails to keep her words. In addition, it is her habit to respect time and never allows of time-wasting practice. As Suu has made up her mind to sacrifice her life for the benefits of her country, she's in no mood for thinking of self-congratulation. To stand on the side of justice and to defend on the side of the oppressed is her usual manner as well.

There are two exemplars, Mahatma Gandhi and her father General Aung San, in her life. From Gandhi she takes her commitment to nonviolence, from her father she takes the power of integrity that represented what she called a profound simplicity. Although she got the spiritual power from the two exemplars, she has her own political ideology that represents defending human rights and human dignity in a manner of fearless way.

Human being or man has his right to live in a free society as a dignitary. As a member of human society, everybody must have the right to be respected. In her famous book - Freedom from Fear - she expresses to be fearless as the core of her thought. She says that - It is not power that corrupts but fear. Fear of losing power corrupts those who wield it and fear of the scourge of power corrupts those who are subject to it. Fearlessness is the best response to governmental violence. In conclusion she writes that "truth, justice and compassion are often the only bulwarks against ruthless power."

Suu often tells the people about fear that caused them to be victimized in the circle of evil life. She encourages the people to get rid of fear as possible as they can. She occasionally shows up of her fearlessness against the military regime, facing guns and bayonets that closely pointed to her while on her trip to grass roots folks. With such examples of courage, firmness and integrity, she becomes symbol of hope for people of Burma similar to her father and Mahatma Gandhi.

It may be the fact that people recognize Suu as their sole savior or the symbol of future Burma, the military junta has continuously disgraced the Nobel laureate by using all dirty tricks. But the regime cannot afford to blacken Suu's reputation and finally they committed a big crime at Dapeyin on 30 May 2003 known as Black Friday. It's a premeditated ambush or political assassination that targeted the National League for Democracy (NLD) and its leadership. But it was in vain for the supporters of the NLD sacrificed their lives defending their charismatic leader and Nobel Peace Laureate. So, it will be in vain for the regime to do away with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi who represents freedom, justice and equality in current Burma.

In the post cold war era, voice of calling for democracy and human rights has been strongly echoing in the main-stream of international politics. It may be a great pity to see that the military junta is still rowing their sinking boat loaded with military dictatorship against the democracy and human rights main-stream. As the generals put their faith in militarism, they do not have enough courage to listen the voice of freedom, justice and equality. They also dare not to face with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi who gets landslide victory in the 1990 General Election. The semi-dictators in the South-east Asia region, who are in the same sinking boat with the junta, also seem to be scared of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her slogan - '' Democracy must come first and foremost ahead of economic development ''.

According to Suu's political point of view, without democracy and basic human rights economic opportunities will not reach equally to all citizens but to the military elite and its cronies. In the absence of freedom, justice and equality, to build a nation's economic development may be a castle in the air. That's why the Nobel laureate of Burma demands to set up a democracy surroundings as a sign of sincerity toward the people.

In fact, the Burmese military dictators cannot afford detaining Daw Aung San Suu Kyi for so long if they do not get supports from the neighboring semi-dictatorial governments.

In other words, the region's anti-democratic leaders are worrying to see the Nobel laureate at the helm of the democratic Burma that may result the renaissance of democracy in the region. Then, she will be crowned as the region's ideological leader for democracy and human rights.

To my individual point of view, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi becomes not only a promising leader of the region but also a world-standard statesman admired by international community. As various parliaments, universities and institutions have conferred honorary awards and doctorates on her, we should recognize her as a prominent ‘statesman’ of the world today.

One outstanding program of the world body is campaign for the Eradication of Poverty. Eradication of absolute poverty and reduce overall poverty substantially in the world. The UN's goal is to reduce the proportion of people living on less than one dollar per day by one half by 2015 through decisive national action and strengthened international cooperation. But to achieve that goal, it is essential to strengthen of respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms. According to Suu, without these fundamental rights the campaign for Eradication of Poverty means nothing.

Holding such advance ideology and policy, Aung San Suu Kyi is rapidly establishing as an important figure in the world political stage. For that reason, people are going to honor and celebrate her sixtieth birthday as a magnificent event in every part of the globe. This glorious birthday ceremonies show that Aung San Suu Kyi does not only belong to Burma but also to the international community. In addition, the military junta can not neglect the fact of recognizing Suu as a charismatic leader of the country.

If the military dictators refuse to recognize the role of Suu in making of democratic Burma, the Statesmanship of the Nobel laureate will gain more influential power in the political arena. If the dictators tried their utmost to damage the reputation of Suu, it will reversely cause them of exposing their immorality. If the generals tried to disgrace her personality especially of her selflessness, the majority population will denounce the military. If the military regime failed to accept the tripartite dialogue offered by Suu and the NLD, it will bring down the regime together with their farce national convention.

To sum up, due to strong supports by the international democratic institutions all over the world, Suu's glorious sixtieth birthday ceremonies has been transforms into great political rallies that raise her image and dignity overwhelmingly. People of Burma are now too proud to possess a democratic leader like Aung San Suu Kyi. Moreover, Suu has been receiving more and more support from people who love democracy throughout the world. It makes the junta to be isolated more than ever. For instance, the emergence of Burma Parliamentary Caucus in some countries is an apparent progress. Subsequently, the Asean Inter-Parliamentarian Caucus on Democracy in Burma (AICD) was also established in Kuala Lumpur last year.

In reality, such political improvement has come into existence due to Suu's firm resolution. Without such a determined leader, there might not be a better future for Burma. Nevertheless, Burma has a better future under the leadership of a firm, brave, honest and selfless leader. To have such a leader is fortunate not only for Burma, but also for the Asean as well. People who are responsible as leaders of the Asean should not waste this fortune to be useless. It is truly important for them to support faithfully and unitarily the nonviolent political path rather than military's blood and iron policy. Being a democratic politician in the Asean institution, it is also important not to be selfish and narrow-minded searching for one's own country. Asean's political leaders should be fearless persons for genuine peace and prosperity of the region.

As Daw Aung San Suu Kyi represents freedom, justice and equality, people think of her as ‘the Light of Hope’ for future Burma. Asean as well as world leaders should respect the will of the Burmese people and support their new hope.

BURMA AT A CROSSROADS

New Era Journal

25 January 2005
Zin Linn

Release Political Prisoners for Democratic Burma

The ouster of Burma's Prime Minister, once powerful Director-General of Burma's notorious Military Intelligence Service, has exposed the comprehensive battle between rival military factions. It also highlighted widespread corruption scandals in the military ruled bankrupt country.

The November 18 announcement was as cryptic as any the Burmese military junta has made till date. Nevertheless, the decree as broadcast over the state run radio that 3,937 prisoners would be set free is welcome news.

These prisoners are among the hundreds and thousands of people who have been randomly picked up and detained in the jails, which, as a former detainee. I can tell you, are hell on earth.

What prompted the rulers to let them free is unclear but the admission that they were all victims of army excesses is a shocking confession about the state of affairs. Coming as it did from the highest in the land; it appears to be a way of atoning for the wrong that was perpetrated on the innocent, though at least on the face of it no remorse is reflected in the decree.

It is for this reason that decree will remain a reference point in the days ahead to the embarrassment of the junta. Mark the words in the announcement: "It is concluded the National Intelligence bureau may have used irregular and improper means to put them into prison".

We don't know when these lucky ones will begin to breathe free and in fact, who these lucky ones are. Because, the broadcast was silent on these basic details.

A guess, rather surmise based on the past experience, is that the criminals may have more chance getting out of jail than the prisoners of conscience.

There is no denying that time is ripe for the Generals to think seriously of releasing all political prisoners and kick start the process of national reconciliation and reconstruction of the economy, which is in shambles.

If the army is sincere, it should relase Burma's Nobel laureate first and then free unconditionally some 1500 political activists who are languishing in jails.

Most of them have been put behind bars by the orders of Gen Khin Nyunt, who had headed the National Intelligence Bureau (NIB), besides being the prime minister of the country till very recently.

Nyunt himself is under house arrest now. And the NIB has been disbanded.

The eclipse of Khin Nyunt exposed the battle for supremancy amongy rival military factions. He obviously incurred the wrath of the Big Man, Senior General than shwe (the head of state). That was why he had to go.

More than that, his control of the border trade and drug trafficking channels in his capacity as the director general of Burma's notorious Military Intelligence Service (MIS) made him neighbours envy.

Burma is the second largest opium producer in the world, after Afghanistan. And Opium trade, legal and illegal, is big money.

The MIS personnel have been acting like the mafia over the years and they have used its elite status to make unbelievable sums of money. The MIS corruption is particularly strong along the border areas where the daily income of a Sergeant far outstrips the pay of a mainstream infantryman.

In addition, smuggling of narcotic drugs by some ethnic groups, which have signed ceasefire deals with MIS, has reached such proportions that early this year, Thailand had threatened to erect a fence along the border to check drug trafficking.

Last September, the MIS directly crossed swords with the army by penetrating into their 'business' territories. Two intelligence officers, Maj. Kyi Zin and Maj. Kyaw Kyaw Naing, (who were directly under the charge of Brig. Gen. Myint Zaw, Chief of the Border Affairs Division at the MIS) have claimed that they had been instructed to raise funds for presidential campaign of Gen. Khin Nyunt.

While it is true that the Junta was planning a switch over to Presidential system by adopting a new constitution at a national convention, the calibrated efforts of Khin Nyunt and his cronies to mobilise men and money for a presidential campaign rang alarm bells in the quarter that mattered.

Some analysts aver that the September clamp down was also a result of senior army commanders desire to control the lucrative border trade with China. It may be true.

What ever be the inside tract, out went orders for a raid on a busy check post at Muse, on the border with China. Apparently, the powers that be wanted to use the raid as a test case.

And what they found and finally seized caused a big stir even when it is common knowledge that the Burmese generals are incredibly corrupt and have built their personal fortunes through smuggling rings.

It is said the soldiers seized huge quantities of gold bars, jade, pearls, foreign currencies and other valuables goods from Muse check post. Operation demolition was sent in motion and it was only after the 'wealth shake-up' was completed and the 20-year-old clandestine Khin Nyunt empire was demolished, the former prime minister was put under arrest on October 19, 2004.

Khin Nyunt operated several profitable businesses through his MIS. These ranged from karaoke bars to travel agencies and from newspapers and magazines to assortment of business enterprises, big and small.

Khin rivals are busy carying out the business empire of the ousted prime minister and his privileged cronies.

Junta's strongman Than Shwe is understood to have decided to rid the MIS of the Khin Nyunt elements. So, business firms linked to the former prime minister have been shut down or made to suspend operations temporarily.

At least 17 journals and magazines went out of news paper stands after Khin Nyunt associates lost control of the Censorship Bureau.

According to a a reliable source in Rangoon, the military regime has imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew in Kyauk-tan, the native town of the ousted Prime Minister since the first week of November.

The army men are removing posters and pictures of Khin Nyunt. Also removed are marble inscriptions on various buildings because Khin Nyunt's name appeared. Most of the closest relatives of the former MIS chief are living in the town and from the looks; it is a systematic operation of cracking down upon Khin Nyunt's grass roots supporters.

Gen. Thura Shwe Mann, Chief of Staff of armed forces, and Lt-Gen. Soe Win, who replaced Khin Nyunt, are vivifying for the top jobs.

Diplomats in Rangoon believe that the man to be watched, however, is Vice Senior General Maung Aye. He is number two in the Junta and in effect, the real commander who is calling the shots.

There is reason to believe that the Senior General Than Shwe is planning to transfer power to 'the next generation' in the army. On his part he likes to switch his role to that of a President, once the Junta's seven-point road map is implemented.

What this transition will mean to Burma? What are the chances of release of political prisoners?

Crystal gazing is difficult at best of times, and certainly in Burma. There may be some trade offs between the Senior General and the Vice Senior General in the matter of new appointments to the cabinet. That may not signal the slackening of army grip over the power structure.

In fact, the army play the power games more assertively. It is easier playing the game without the Nobel laureate and her party.

But as I said at the outset, if the army is sincere and has the true interests of Burma at heart, it should do what the world expects of them - set free all political prisoners. Without more ado! And without any further delay! This is the time for action. Burmese generals are now at crossroads of the history. Do they wish to avoid a dishonorable motive?

Zin Linn: The author, a freelance Burmese journalist, lives in exile. He spent 9 years in the junta's hellish prison for his dissenting voice. He is an executive member of the Burma Media Association, which is affiliated with the Paris-based Reporters Sans Frontiers.